NBA Betting Strategy: Expert tips to help you find success on the hardwood

NBA Betting Strategy: Expert tips to help you find success on the hardwood

If you're a fan of the NBA, you're aware of how exciting the games are. That said, if you wish to take your betting to the next level, it's more than a matter of relying on luck. Whether you're new to betting or have been at it for a while, a solid strategy is the way to go. In this article, we'll discuss some actionable tips and strategies to make you a better bettor and maximize your NBA experience. We'll also explore how a VSiN subscription can elevate your game.

Learn the different types of NBA bets available

Before we dive into strategy, let's quickly look at the most common types of NBA sports betting bets you'll find:

  • Spread: This bet involves picking which team will cover the spread. The favorite has to win by a certain number of points, while the underdog can win or lose by fewer points than the spread.
  • Moneyline: Easy peasy — this bet is simply about picking the winner of the game, with no spread.
  • Over/Under (Totals): You are betting on whether the combined score of the two teams will go Over or Under a set number.
  • Prop bets: These are exotic bets on specific events in the game, such as how many points a player will score or how many 3s a team will make.

Do as much research as you can

When betting on the NBA, homework is very important. There are many variables in a game — injuries, recent performance and scheduling situations can all have an impact on the outcome. Keep the following in mind:

Check for injuries: One injury to an important player can completely alter the course of a game, so make sure you're up to date with player status before placing your bets. The NBA releases injury reports on a regular basis on their official website, and we also carry a VSiN NBA Injury Report page that updates frequently.

Check trends for the teams: See how the two teams have been playing lately. Are they hot or cold? Trends can give a hint as to how a game might turn out.

Look into the matchup: Every team plays differently. Some teams might have a solid defense that can shut down high-scoring offenses. Knowing how the teams match up can result in a smarter bet.

Monitor a team's recent schedule: An easy bet the NBA thing to do is fade (bet against) teams that are on the second night of back-to-backs, or playing three in four days. Even the best teams in hoops get tired, or simply mentally exhausted.

Do not disregard the value of betting underdogs

While everyone else is rushing to wager the favorites, underdog betting is where you can often find more value. Here's why you might want to take a shot with the underdog:

Home underdogs: Any team that is at home is generally at an advantage, even if they're not supposed to win. That home-court advantage is so important. We've done some studies on the true impact of home-court advantage at VSiN.

Injuries to favorites: When the favorite is fighting injuries or playing on back-to-back nights, the underdog may step up and surprise. Taking the points with the underdog and putting some pizza money down on the moneyline occasionally returns in a huge manner.

Use advanced statistics to have an incredible edge

For those who enjoy immersing themselves in statistics, deeper statistics can provide a more nuanced look at the game. We frequently refer to adjusted offensive and defensive rating on the network. Those numbers show how well a team is scoring and defending per 100 possessions, adjusted for strength of schedule. They tell you far more about a team's ability than traditional statistics.

Dunks & Threes is a good, affordable resource for NBA bettors. However, free detailed statistics are always available at NBA.com, and the stats are courtesy of the highly respected Second Spectrum. The stats at the NBA website are great for betting player props. Instead of just looking at traditional assists per game and rebounds per game, the NBA offers numbers like potential assists and rebound chances. Those can give you a better idea of a player's role, or general opportunities in terms of reaching certain prop totals. If a player is averaging a lot of potential assists per game and isn't necessarily racking up assists, they might be due for better luck and bigger games.

Cleaning The Glass is another helpful website for bettors. They don't give their own team efficiency figures, but they do allow you to organize by date so you can see a specific sample that you might be looking for. You can also see how good a team is at shooting mid-range shots, corner 3s and other things of that nature. You can also see how good teams are at defending those shots. If properly applied, you can get a very good idea of how a game might play out. NBA teams actually use those numbers.

Subscribe to VSiN and use our amazing tools

Watch/listen to our live VSiN programming: Watch our live shows on YouTube TV or download the VSiN Watch app. We're also on Roku TV and Fire TV. You can also listen to our shows on iHeartRadio, or in podcast on Spotify. And we're back on SiriusXM radio, so listen to us on channel 158! Our experienced hosts, analysts and guests discuss regularly how they're betting on the NBA, whether that's tonight's action or how they're playing the futures market.

Use our NBA Prop Bet Analyzers: Our prop betting tool is a must-use for any person looking for action on individual players. You get an overview of how each player has done compared to their points, rebounds, assists, 3-pointers and player combo props for the season. So, whether you're looking at Overs or Unders, you should be pretty well aware of how each player has done over the course of the year. There is even the ability to sort by ROI so that you can see how profitable it will be to back any player who is playing on any particular evening.

Take a look at our exclusive VSiN Power Ratings:

Our numbers guru Steve Makinen does a fantastic job with all sports, but his NBA power ratings are exceptional. Get an idea of how good each team really is, and compare his estimated spreads and totals for each game to what the Vegas lines are on our matchup pages! Those matchup pages also feature some very handy betting trends!

Check out our team bet summaries and referee bet summaries:

We have a page that shows how each team has performed with specific bets this season. For serious bettors, you can also see how each NBA referee impacts betting.

Be on the lookout for all of our written NBA content: In addition to playing a large role in developing out our fantastic set of tools, Makinen also pens an article each day where he discusses some can't-miss betting systems. We also have daily NBA best bets and player props articles up on our NBA page on a regular basis, along with some features on major stories that rock the Association.

Track your bets and adapt

To really improve your betting, track your bets. Recording your bets will enable you to spot trends and adjust your strategy moving forward:

Identify what's working: Maybe you're cashing on Overs more often, or you're profitable when betting on certain teams. Knowing what's working helps you to hone your strategy.

Learn from losses: Not every bet will be a win, and that's part of the game. The key is to learn from your losses, refine your approach and keep improving.

Be smart about managing your bankroll

One of the most important parts of betting is managing your bankroll. Getting carried away and betting too much can quickly ruin your chances. Here's how to stay in control:

Set a betting budget: Decide how much you're prepared to gamble before you start betting, and stick to it. Betting more than you can afford to lose is the simplest way to get burned. If you feel you're going down the wrong road, there's help out there and you shouldn't hesitate to make the call.
Bet small: The majority of professional bettors put a small percentage of their bankroll on each game — typically 1-5%. This enables you to ride out losing streaks without going bust.
Don't chase losses: If you're on a cold streak, don't try to recover losses by placing bigger bets. Simply adhere to your system and don't make emotional decisions.

Conclusion

Betting on the NBA can be enjoyable and profitable if you do it the right way. If you do your research, understand different kinds of bets, watch your bankroll closely and have a numerical approach, you will be well on your way to placing knowledgeable bets. There are no guarantees in the business of wagering, but using these strategies, you will have a strong possibility of success. Cashin' tickets is what it's all about.